Ken's Project Blog

February 3, 2011

Egypt and Global *

Filed under: In The News,Politics — Ken @ 3:33 pm

Another of my ‘long-winded responses to an opponent’s comment elsewhere that I wanted a record of’ posts. We join the debate, already in progress…

Andy – I’m not closely following developments in Egypt (I have prescious little ability to influence the outcome), but without getting into a dissection of the motives of the crowd, I think it’s fair to say there are really two factions at play: pro-Mubarak & anti-Mubarak.

If it is the pro-Mubarak crowd denouncing America, then they are playing a dangerous game trying to discredit America while we have (arguably) proped up their leader and given them (on average) $1.5 BN/yr in aid – if they are too effective, they could scare away their own leaders only real supporter, America.

If it is the anti-Mubarak crowd, then it makes sense, because, as I said earlier we propped up their enemy (Mubarak), but on another level it is a bit of a ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’ situation. Driving American support away from Egypt may win them control of Egypt, but it will likely cost them the generous aid we have traditionally given them. Egypt with $1.5 BN less of our money swirling around their economy doesn’t likely make Egypt a stronger country.

Per capita each American throws $5 in to Egypt each year, which translates into $18 in aid per Egyptian citizen ($1.5 BN divided by 300M and 83M, respectively. I think they’ll miss the $18/person if we pull out of Egypt.

I suspect this will get very bloody very soon, and when it does, in the eyes of most Americans, there won’t be a ‘winner’ so much as there will be a new leader, and that new leader will have a hard time re-establishing relations with America – the Egyptians will make it hard, not the Americans, I suspect.

OK, I’ve used up my daily quota of commas, so I’m gonna stop now, but your previous posts make it very clear that you still consider my previous admonition support of a differing position from your on Global [cooling|warming|change] – suffice to say I feel that lowering carbon emissions is a good thing, but I don’t fool myself into think my driving a car with slightly better milage will somehow ‘save the world’ or elevates me from luddite status. No, it’s more the case that I abhor waste and champion efficiency, your beliefs about the planet don’t enter in to it.

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